After A Long Search, Danger Has Been Found
Sydney Morning Herald
Thursday December 7, 2000
In previous years, Australia's defence strategists were hard-pressed to find a trouble spot within cooee that might engage or even trouble our forces.
In this year's white paper, the picture of our ``strategic setting" gets worse the closer it gets to home.
The ``arc of instability" coined recently by the author of the 1987 white paper, Paul Dibb, is not mentioned as such, but Australia has a belt of trouble spots around its northern approaches.The network of military relationships carefully fostered for decades is clearly in disarray. Notably, the defence relationship with Indonesia has been suspended in most areas of contact since the East Timor intervention last year.
``Lingering misunderstandings" in Indonesia have so far made it difficult to build on the chances offered by Indonesia's shift to democracy.
Security problems in East Timor, meanwhile, might not be resolved by the time the United Nations hands over to a national government at the end of next year.
``There is a significant risk of continued security challenges from armed militias opposed to independence," the white paper says.
``[The] insecurity could ... pose problems for relations between East Timor and Indonesia. Australia will look to the Indonesian Government to continue work to prevent militia activity in East Timor from being supported from West Timor."
New Zealand is another worry. It is re-equipping its land forces, which were valued partners in East Timor, but is thinking of phasing out its attack aircraft and reducing its fighting ships.
``We would regret any decision by New Zealand not to maintain at least some capable air and naval combat capabilities," the white paper notes. ``Such forces would allow a more significant contribution to be made to protecting our shared strategic interests, especially in view of the essentially maritime nature of the strategic environment."
In Papua New Guinea, where Australia wants to remain the primary defence partner, the defence force is ``in need of reform" as a result of pressures on its unity and effectiveness from the Bougainville conflict, the Sandline affair and endemic funding problems.
Canberra's recent emergency bailout of the PNGDF has been linked to long-term reform of the force planned by Sir Mekere Morauta's government, including restructuring to fit limited resources.
``Recent events elsewhere in the South Pacific [read Fiji] have underlined the importance of a PNGDF that is loyal and responsive to political control," the white paper says.
Further away in South-East Asia, the white paper notes improving defence relationships with Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines and, particularly, Singapore.
``Australia's close defence relationship with Singapore is characterised by shared strategic perceptions, and includes extensive exercises and training by the Singapore Armed Forces in Australia," the white paper says.
``As Singapore's forces are the most capable in South-East Asia, exercising with them provides important benefits to the Australian Defence Force."
The white paper says the alliance with the United States shows ``renewed vigour", with the US viewing Australia as an important ally, a key partner in regional security and ``a significant potential contributor to coalitions". ``New arrangements established this year give Australia even better access to US military technology, including in highly critical and sensitive areas that could give us a vital edge in combat," the document says.
``The kind of ADF that we need is not achievable without the technology access provided by the US alliance. Intelligence cooperation and sharing play a central role in enhancing our understanding of the world around us."
© 2000 Sydney Morning Herald
